About Advanced Football Stats
Advanced Football Stats measures NFL teams the way the game is played: one drive at a time. Every week we rate each offense and defense on how its drives end, play every game out drive by drive 2,000 times, and publish how those forecasts have done.
What's different
- Drive-level simulation. Ratings come from Bayesian survival models of how far drives get and how they end (scores, stalls and turnovers), adjusted for opponents and game situation. Games, rankings and projected wins all come from simulating those drives, not from box-score totals.
- A public track record. Every completed game with a forecast is graded on our methodology page: how often the favorite won, the Brier score and a calibration table, season by season.
- The method in plain English. How our NFL model works explains the ratings, the simulation and the model's known limitations.
What you can find here
- Power rankings Every team simulated against a league-average opponent, ranked by how often it wins. Updated weekly.
- Drive stats Offensive and defensive drive efficiency and turnover rates for all 32 teams, adjusted for opponents.
- Standings Division and league standings with projected wins from the season simulation.
- Games Every game of the week, with results and our simulation for each matchup.
- Track record How often our favorite won, and the Brier score, for every completed game with a forecast.
- Insights Weekly Drive Reports on the biggest movers in drive efficiency and the rankings.
Who runs Advanced Football Stats
Advanced Football Stats is an independent NFL analytics site operated by Spitfire Labs LLC, a Georgia limited liability company doing business as Advanced Football Stats. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any NFL team, and we are not affiliated with Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats), the analytics site founded by Brian Burke.
Data sources
Play-by-play, schedule and game data come from nflverse, used under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. We have processed and modified that data to build our statistics, and nflverse does not endorse this Site. Older seasons also draw on Pro Football Reference. Our ratings, simulations and predictions are our own.
Contact
Questions about the method, or something that looks wrong? Visit our contact page.