About Advanced Football Stats
Advanced Football Stats is an NFL analytics platform that combines machine learning with Bayesian statistics to provide predictions and insights that go beyond traditional box scores.
Who runs Advanced Football Stats
Advanced Football Stats is an independent NFL analytics site operated by Spitfire Labs LLC, a Georgia limited liability company doing business as Advanced Football Stats. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL or any NFL team, and we are not affiliated with Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats), the analytics site founded by Brian Burke.
Our Methodology
For the full method, its known limitations and our season-by-season track record, see how our NFL model works.
Bayesian Survival Analysis
At the core of our predictions is a Bayesian survival analysis model that analyzes drive-level data. Unlike traditional stats that focus on individual plays, we model the probability of drive outcomes based on field position, game situation, and team strength. This approach captures the strategic flow of NFL games more accurately.
Machine Learning Models
Our Bayesian drive models are fit each week on the current season's drives, then every game is simulated drive by drive 2,000 times to produce win probabilities, projected scores, spreads and totals. See our methodology for the details and our public track record.
Drive Efficiency Metrics
Our drive efficiency ratings measure how effectively teams move the ball and score. We break this down into offensive drive efficiency (scoring ability), defensive drive efficiency (preventing scores), and turnover efficiency (ball security and takeaways).
Key Features
Game Predictions
Win probabilities, predicted scores, and spread analysis for every NFL matchup.
Team Rankings
Power rankings based on offensive and defensive efficiency, updated weekly.
Drive Stats
Comprehensive drive-level analytics for all 32 NFL teams.
Model vs. Market Lines
Our model's win, cover and total probabilities compared with published market lines, for members 21 and older.
Data Sources
Our analysis is built on comprehensive NFL play-by-play data going back multiple seasons. We process every play, drive, and game to build our statistical models and update predictions weekly throughout the season.
Play-by-play, schedule and game data come from nflverse, used under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. We have processed and modified that data to build our statistics, and nflverse does not endorse this Site. Older seasons also draw on Pro Football Reference. Our ratings, simulations and predictions are our own.
Contact
Have questions about our methodology or want to learn more? Visit our contact page or follow us on Twitter/X.