About Advanced Football Stats
Advanced Football Stats is an NFL analytics platform that combines machine learning with Bayesian statistics to provide predictions and insights that go beyond traditional box scores.
Our Methodology
Bayesian Survival Analysis
At the core of our predictions is a Bayesian survival analysis model that analyzes drive-level data. Unlike traditional stats that focus on individual plays, we model the probability of drive outcomes based on field position, game situation, and team strength. This approach captures the strategic flow of NFL games more accurately.
Machine Learning Models
We use machine learning to predict game outcomes, including win probabilities, expected scores, and point spreads. Our models are trained on historical NFL data and updated throughout the season to incorporate the latest team performance.
Drive Efficiency Metrics
Our drive efficiency ratings measure how effectively teams move the ball and score. We break this down into offensive drive efficiency (scoring ability), defensive drive efficiency (preventing scores), and turnover efficiency (ball security and takeaways).
Key Features
Game Predictions
Win probabilities, predicted scores, and spread analysis for every NFL matchup.
Team Rankings
Power rankings based on offensive and defensive efficiency, updated weekly.
Drive Stats
Comprehensive drive-level analytics for all 32 NFL teams.
Betting Analytics
Moneyline, spread, and over/under insights for informed betting decisions.
Data Sources
Our analysis is built on comprehensive NFL play-by-play data going back multiple seasons. We process every play, drive, and game to build our statistical models and update predictions weekly throughout the season.
Contact
Have questions about our methodology or want to learn more? Visit our contact page or follow us on Twitter/X.