Disclaimer

We publish NFL statistics, simulations and model probabilities. A probability is an estimate, not a promise that something will happen: an outcome our model rates at 70% should still fail about 3 times in 10, and our models are often wrong. Nothing on the Site is a recommendation to place any bet, and nothing on the Site is betting, financial, legal or tax advice.

We do not accept, place, broker or facilitate wagers, and we have no financial relationship with any sportsbook. Betting lines shown on the Site are market data for comparison. They come from public sources, are updated about once a week, may be delayed or inaccurate, and may differ from the price available to you.

Any record, win rate, units or return shown for our model is hypothetical. It shows how the model's published probabilities would have fared against historical lines; no real bets were placed. Probabilities are produced before kickoff during the season, but past seasons may have been regenerated with later model versions, so historical results can include information the model did not have at the time. Results ignore line movement, betting limits, fees and taxes. Past results do not predict future results.

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The Site is not affiliated with or endorsed by the NFL, the NFL Players Association, any NFL team or any sportsbook. Team names are used only to identify the teams our statistics describe.

Statistics on the Site are compiled from public sources, including nflverse data (used under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license) and, for older seasons, Pro Football Reference. Our ratings, simulations and probabilities are our own.

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