Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to know about Advanced Football Stats and how our numbers are made.
General
- What is Advanced Football Stats?
- Advanced Football Stats is an independent NFL analytics site. We rate every team's offense and defense on how its drives end, simulate each game drive by drive, and publish power rankings, standings, drive stats and a public track record of our forecasts.
- Is Advanced Football Stats free to use?
- Yes. Creating an account is free. Members get predicted scores and model performance tracking on game pages. Members who confirm they are 21 or older can also see betting lines alongside the model.
- How often is the data updated?
- Game data and statistics are updated after each week's games conclude. Team rankings and predictive models are recalculated weekly to incorporate the latest results.
- What NFL seasons do you have data for?
- Our database includes comprehensive NFL data going back multiple seasons, allowing for historical analysis and trend identification.
Predictions & Analytics
- How are the game predictions calculated?
- Each week we fit Bayesian survival models to the season's drives, rating how far each offense moves the ball and how each defense stops it, including turnovers, adjusted for opponents and game situation. Every game is then played out drive by drive 2,000 times from those ratings. Win probabilities, predicted scores, spreads and totals are summaries of those simulated games. Our methodology page explains each step.
- What makes these stats 'advanced'?
- Our statistics go beyond basic box scores by analyzing drive-level data, field position impact, situational football decisions, and using machine learning to predict future outcomes rather than just reporting past results.
- How accurate are your predictions?
- Our methodology page publishes a track record for every season with predictions: how often the model's favorite won and its Brier score, plus a calibration table. Members can also see predicted vs. actual results on each completed game page.
- What is drive efficiency?
- Drive efficiency measures how effectively a team moves the ball and scores on offensive possessions. We break this into offensive drive efficiency (scoring), defensive drive efficiency (preventing scores), and turnover efficiency.
- How do you calculate win probability?
- It comes from the drive-by-drive game simulation. We play each game out 2,000 times; each simulated game draws a fresh set of team ratings from the models' uncertainty, then plays drives, kicks, the clock and overtime. The home team's win probability is the share of those simulated games it wins outright. A 70% favorite should still lose about 3 games in 10, and our track record checks whether that holds.
Team & Player Stats
- What statistics are available for each NFL team?
- We provide comprehensive team statistics including offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, drive success rates, turnover models, field position analytics, and predictive performance metrics for all 32 NFL teams.
- How are team rankings determined?
- Each week every team is simulated against the same imaginary opponent whose ratings are exactly league average, with home field assigned at random. Teams are ranked by how often they win those games, so the ranking measures team strength rather than record. Rankings update weekly.
- Do you have individual player statistics?
- Our focus is primarily on team and drive-level analytics rather than individual player stats. For player-specific data, we recommend resources like Pro Football Reference.
Betting & Odds
- What betting information do you provide?
- For members 21 and older, we show market moneyline, spread and total lines alongside our model's probabilities, so you can see where the two differ. We do not accept or place bets.
- Where do the betting odds come from?
- Betting lines are market consensus lines from public data sources, updated about once a week. They may be out of date and may differ from the odds any sportsbook is offering.
- Should I bet based on your predictions?
- No. Our analytics are information, not betting advice, and our models are often wrong. Any record or results we show for the model are hypothetical: no real bets were placed. Sports betting involves risk of loss, is limited to adults 21 and older in most states, and is not legal everywhere, including Georgia. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone you know, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET.
Account & Membership
- What benefits do members get?
- Members get detailed game predictions with predicted scores and model performance tracking. Members who confirm they are 21 or older can also see betting lines and the model's cover and over/under probabilities.
- How do I create an account?
- Click the 'Sign Up' button in the top navigation. You'll just need an email address and password - no credit card required.
- Can I delete my account?
- Yes. Email us from the address on your account and we will delete your account and the personal information we hold within 30 days. Our Privacy Policy explains what deletion covers, including backups and data held by Google.
- What's in Premium?
- Premium adds:
- Game Forecast: margin of victory, points for each team, total points, one-score and overtime chances, and how each team's drives end, from 2,000 simulations of every game
- Simulated game replays: watch a close game and a blowout from each game's simulations, drive by drive, and simulate a new game at random whenever you like
- Season Outlook: projected-win ranges for every team and how they've moved week by week, and each team's win chance in every remaining game
- Playoff Odds: every team's seed chances, week-by-week history, what-if scenarios for this week's games, who to root for, the record that gets each team in, and the model's win chances for every remaining game in the scenario planner
- Matchup Simulator: the full forecast for any two teams, at either team's field or on a neutral field
- Data exports: this season's game forecasts, season outlook and remaining-game win chances as CSV files
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