Methods
Home Field Advantage
The edge a team gets from playing at home. Across the NFL it has historically been worth a few points per game and has shrunk in recent seasons.
How we use it
Our drive model estimates home field from the current season's games, as an effect on how well defenses stop drives at home.
Where to see it
Related terms
- Win Probability
- The model's estimated chance that a team wins a game, from the share of simulated games it wins. A 70% favorite should still lose about 3 games in 10.
- Drive Efficiency
- A team rating for how far drives get before they stall in a punt or field-goal attempt, adjusted for the opponents faced and the game situation. Zero is league average and higher is better, for offense and for defense.