Our metrics
Simulated Win Rate
The share of simulated games a team wins outright against a league-average opponent. It is the number our power rankings are sorted by.
How we use it
Each week we simulate every team against a "median" team whose offense and defense ratings are exactly league average, with home field assigned at random. The win rate is the share of those games the team wins; a tie counts as not a win.
Because every team plays the same opponent, the win rate measures team strength without the schedule. A team at 50% is average; a team at 70% would beat an average team about 7 times in 10.
Where to see it
Related terms
- Power Ranking
- An ordering of teams by strength rather than by record. Ours orders teams by simulated win rate against a league-average opponent.
- Win Probability
- The model's estimated chance that a team wins a game, from the share of simulated games it wins. A 70% favorite should still lose about 3 games in 10.
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Estimating the chance of an outcome by playing it out many times with random draws and counting how often it happens.