As of Week 8, 2,000 simulated seasons with NFL tiebreakers
Each team's chance to make the playoffs, win its division and earn the #1 seed (the only first-round bye). We simulate the rest of the 2026 regular season 2,000 times with our drive-by-drive game model, then seed every simulated season the way the NFL does: division winners first, then wild cards, with the league's full tie-breaking procedures down to strength of victory and the coin toss. How the model works.
| Team | Make playoffs | Win division | #1 seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo BillsEast | 89% | 61% | 31% |
| Kansas City ChiefsWest | 82% | 64% | 15% |
| Jacksonville JaguarsSouth | 80% | 71% | 12% |
| New England PatriotsEast | 79% | 37% | 13% |
| Cincinnati BengalsNorth | 75% | 40% | 12% |
| Pittsburgh SteelersNorth | 61% | 24% | 5% |
| Cleveland BrownsNorth | 57% | 24% | 4% |
| Denver BroncosWest | 51% | 25% | 4% |
| Baltimore RavensNorth | 42% | 12% | 2% |
| Las Vegas RaidersWest | 28% | 11% | 1% |
| Houston TexansSouth | 26% | 17% | <1% |
| Indianapolis ColtsSouth | 15% | 11% | 0% |
| New York JetsEast | 10% | 2% | <1% |
| Miami DolphinsEast | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| Tennessee TitansSouth | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| Los Angeles ChargersWest | 1% | <1% | 0% |
| Team | Make playoffs | Win division | #1 seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ersWest | 96% | 79% | 46% |
| Minnesota VikingsNorth | 79% | 41% | 19% |
| Chicago BearsNorth | 74% | 29% | 11% |
| Detroit LionsNorth | 66% | 26% | 8% |
| Seattle SeahawksWest | 62% | 15% | 6% |
| Carolina PanthersSouth | 56% | 47% | 3% |
| New York GiantsEast | 54% | 47% | 2% |
| Dallas CowboysEast | 44% | 38% | 1% |
| Atlanta FalconsSouth | 44% | 32% | 2% |
| Los Angeles RamsWest | 44% | 5% | 1% |
| Green Bay PackersNorth | 33% | 5% | 1% |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersSouth | 20% | 16% | <1% |
| Philadelphia EaglesEast | 9% | 8% | 0% |
| Washington CommandersEast | 8% | 7% | 0% |
| New Orleans SaintsSouth | 8% | 6% | 0% |
| Arizona CardinalsWest | 3% | <1% | 0% |
What if your team wins Sunday? Pick the winners in the scenario planner and see every team's chances update.
0% and 100% mean none or all of the simulated seasons; <1% and >99% mean a handful. Seven teams per conference make the playoffs: four division winners and three wild cards.
See every team's chance of each seed 1-7, how this week's results would move the race, and each team's odds week by week.