As of Week 5, 2,000 simulated seasons with NFL tiebreakers
Each team's chance to make the playoffs, win its division and earn the #1 seed (the only first-round bye). We simulate the rest of the 2026 regular season 2,000 times with our drive-by-drive game model, then seed every simulated season the way the NFL does: division winners first, then wild cards, with the league's full tie-breaking procedures down to strength of victory and the coin toss. How the model works.
| Team | Make playoffs | Win division | #1 seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo BillsEast | 84% | 63% | 22% |
| Kansas City ChiefsWest | 80% | 54% | 19% |
| Jacksonville JaguarsSouth | 77% | 61% | 14% |
| Baltimore RavensNorth | 72% | 45% | 14% |
| Las Vegas RaidersWest | 69% | 34% | 11% |
| New England PatriotsEast | 58% | 28% | 5% |
| Cincinnati BengalsNorth | 54% | 24% | 4% |
| Cleveland BrownsNorth | 47% | 21% | 4% |
| Indianapolis ColtsSouth | 44% | 26% | 2% |
| Denver BroncosWest | 27% | 8% | 2% |
| Pittsburgh SteelersNorth | 26% | 9% | 1% |
| New York JetsEast | 22% | 8% | 1% |
| Houston TexansSouth | 18% | 9% | <1% |
| Los Angeles ChargersWest | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| Tennessee TitansSouth | 8% | 5% | <1% |
| Miami DolphinsEast | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Team | Make playoffs | Win division | #1 seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ersWest | 90% | 64% | 36% |
| Chicago BearsNorth | 87% | 64% | 25% |
| Carolina PanthersSouth | 67% | 54% | 6% |
| Seattle SeahawksWest | 61% | 22% | 9% |
| Los Angeles RamsWest | 56% | 13% | 5% |
| Dallas CowboysEast | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| Minnesota VikingsNorth | 52% | 19% | 6% |
| Atlanta FalconsSouth | 44% | 27% | 3% |
| New York GiantsEast | 43% | 30% | 2% |
| Detroit LionsNorth | 42% | 13% | 2% |
| Philadelphia EaglesEast | 35% | 26% | 2% |
| New Orleans SaintsSouth | 23% | 13% | <1% |
| Green Bay PackersNorth | 16% | 4% | 1% |
| Arizona CardinalsWest | 13% | 1% | <1% |
| Washington CommandersEast | 8% | 4% | <1% |
| Tampa Bay BuccaneersSouth | 8% | 5% | <1% |
0% and 100% mean none or all of the simulated seasons; <1% and >99% mean a handful. Seven teams per conference make the playoffs: four division winners and three wild cards.