Our metrics
Combined Drive Efficiency
Drive efficiency and turnover propensity added together, so a team's rating reflects every way a drive can end short of the end zone: punts, field-goal attempts, turnovers and turnovers on downs.
How we use it
Our model treats a drive's end as competing risks: the drive can stall (punt or field-goal attempt) or turn the ball over, and each risk has its own team ratings. Combined drive efficiency adds the two ratings for each team's offense and for its defense.
It is the closest single number to how the simulator sees a team, because the game simulation uses both risks on every drive.
Where to see it
Related terms
- Drive Efficiency
- A team rating for how far drives get before they stall in a punt or field-goal attempt, adjusted for the opponents faced and the game situation. Zero is league average and higher is better, for offense and for defense.
- Turnover Propensity
- A team rating for how often drives end in a turnover (interception, fumble, turnover on downs, safety or blocked kick) for each yard covered, adjusted for opponents and situation. Zero is league average and higher is better.
- Survival Analysis
- A family of statistical methods for how long something lasts before an event happens. We apply it to drives: how many yards a drive survives before it ends.