Our metrics
Turnover Propensity
A team rating for how often drives end in a turnover (interception, fumble, turnover on downs, safety or blocked kick) for each yard covered, adjusted for opponents and situation. Zero is league average and higher is better.
How we use it
For an offense, a higher rating means it gives the ball away less often than an average team would against the same defenses. For a defense, a higher rating means it takes the ball away more often.
It comes from a separate turnover survival model with the same structure as drive efficiency. In each simulated drive the two models compete: when a drive ends, the share of the ending risk that belongs to turnovers decides whether it was a turnover.
Where to see it
Related terms
- Drive Efficiency
- A team rating for how far drives get before they stall in a punt or field-goal attempt, adjusted for the opponents faced and the game situation. Zero is league average and higher is better, for offense and for defense.
- Combined Drive Efficiency
- Drive efficiency and turnover propensity added together, so a team's rating reflects every way a drive can end short of the end zone: punts, field-goal attempts, turnovers and turnovers on downs.
- Survival Analysis
- A family of statistical methods for how long something lasts before an event happens. We apply it to drives: how many yards a drive survives before it ends.