Every game win probability we publish is written to this log before kickoff, by our database's clock, in a record that can only be added to. Below, each game is graded with the last prediction logged before it started. Nothing here is a backtest: games without a pre-kickoff entry don't count. How the forecasts are made: methodology.
The database rejects edits and deletions, and each entry carries a SHA-256 hash of the entry before it, so changing any past entry would change every hash after it. We publish the newest hash here after every update and archive this page with the Internet Archive, so anyone can compare.
The side our model favours in each market, from the same entry logged before kickoff. Certainty is the model's chance that side wins, with pushes left out. For information only; not betting advice.
Spread and over/under picks include the betting line, so they're for signed-in users 21 and older. Log in to see them.
42 picks · Moneyline: 22-19 (won-lost-push)
| Week | Game | Market | Pick | Certainty | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | WAS @ SFO | Moneyline | SFO | 69.8% | Won |
| Week 6 | ARI @ LAR | Moneyline | LAR | 69.3% | Lost |
| Week 6 | NYJ @ NWE | Moneyline | NWE | 69.0% | Won |
| Week 8 | TEN @ CIN | Moneyline | CIN | 68.6% | Won |
| Week 8 | NWE @ MIA | Moneyline | NWE | 68.6% | Won |
| Week 7 | NYG @ HOU | Moneyline | HOU | 66.7% | Lost |
| Week 6 | SEA @ DEN | Moneyline | SEA | 66.6% | Lost |
| Week 7 | TAM @ CAR | Moneyline | CAR | 66.3% | Lost |
| Week 8 | LAC @ LAR | Moneyline | LAR | 65.8% | Won |
| Week 6 | CAR @ PHI | Moneyline | CAR | 61.9% | Won |
| Week 8 | ARI @ DAL | Moneyline | DAL | 61.7% | Lost |
| Week 6 | BUF @ LVR | Moneyline | BUF | 61.2% | Won |
| Week 6 | TEN @ IND | Moneyline | IND | 60.9% | Lost |
| Week 6 | BAL @ CLE | Moneyline | BAL | 60.5% | Lost |
| Week 7 | MIA @ NYJ | Moneyline | NYJ | 60.4% | Lost |
| Week 7 | DAL @ PHI | Moneyline | DAL | 59.5% | Won |
| Week 6 | LAC @ KAN | Moneyline | KAN | 59.0% | Won |
| Week 8 | CAR @ GNB | Moneyline | CAR | 58.5% | Lost |
| Week 8 | KAN @ DEN | Moneyline | KAN | 58.5% | Lost |
| Week 8 | IND @ JAX | Moneyline | JAX | 57.4% | Won |
| Week 8 | BAL @ BUF | Moneyline | BUF | 57.3% | Won |
| Week 6 | DAL @ GNB | Moneyline | DAL | 56.5% | Lost |
| Week 7 | GNB @ DET | Moneyline | DET | 56.5% | Won |
| Week 6 | HOU @ JAX | Moneyline | JAX | 55.5% | Lost |
| Week 6 | NOR @ NYG | Moneyline | NOR | 55.1% | Won |
| Week 8 | MIN @ DET | Moneyline | DET | 55.0% | Won |
| Week 7 | SFO @ ATL | Moneyline | SFO | 54.8% | Lost |
| Week 8 | ATL @ TAM | Moneyline | ATL | 54.6% | Lost |
| Week 7 | PIT @ NOR | Moneyline | PIT | 54.4% | Won |
| Week 6 | CHI @ ATL | Moneyline | CHI | 53.1% | Won |
| Week 7 | KAN @ SEA | Moneyline | SEA | 53.0% | Won |
| Week 7 | NWE @ CHI | Moneyline | NWE | 53.0% | Lost |
| Week 7 | LAR @ LVR | Moneyline | LAR | 53.0% | Won |
| Week 8 | CLE @ PIT | Moneyline | PIT | 52.7% | Won |
| Week 8 | CHI @ SEA | Moneyline | SEA | 52.7% | Not played yet |
| Week 7 | IND @ MIN | Moneyline | IND | 52.2% | Lost |
| Week 7 | DEN @ ARI | Moneyline | ARI | 51.8% | Lost |
| Week 8 | LVR @ NYJ | Moneyline | LVR | 51.4% | Won |
| Week 8 | PHI @ WAS | Moneyline | PHI | 50.7% | Lost |
| Week 7 | CIN @ BAL | Moneyline | CIN | 50.5% | Won |
| Week 7 | CLE @ TEN | Moneyline | CLE | 50.4% | Won |
| Week 6 | PIT @ TAM | Moneyline | TAM | 50.0% | Lost |
The log began with 2026 Week 6. Earlier forecasts are covered by the backtest on the methodology page.
Pushes, including tied games, and exact 50% forecasts aren't graded. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results, and nothing here is betting advice; see our disclaimer.