Our metrics
Projected Wins
How many regular-season games a team is expected to finish with: its actual wins so far plus the wins from simulating the rest of its schedule.
How we use it
Games already played keep their real results. The rest of the regular season is simulated as one league, 2,000 times, and each simulated season keeps one draw of the team ratings for all its games. Standings show the mean and median win total and the middle 50% range.
The same simulated seasons, seeded with the NFL's tiebreakers, give each team's playoff chances.
Where to see it
Related terms
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Estimating the chance of an outcome by playing it out many times with random draws and counting how often it happens.
- Win Probability
- The model's estimated chance that a team wins a game, from the share of simulated games it wins. A 70% favorite should still lose about 3 games in 10.
- Simulated Win Rate
- The share of simulated games a team wins outright against a league-average opponent. It is the number our power rankings are sorted by.