Our metrics
Projected Wins
How many regular-season games a team is expected to finish with: its actual wins so far plus the wins from simulating the rest of its schedule.
How we use it
Games already played keep their real results. Every remaining regular-season game is simulated, many times over, with the current ratings. Standings show the mean and median win total and the middle 50% range.
We do not currently publish playoff or division probabilities.
Where to see it
Related terms
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Estimating the chance of an outcome by playing it out many times with random draws and counting how often it happens.
- Win Probability
- The model's estimated chance that a team wins a game, from the share of simulated games it wins. A 70% favorite should still lose about 3 games in 10.
- Simulated Win Rate
- The share of simulated games a team wins outright against a league-average opponent. It is the number our power rankings are sorted by.