Week 10 Drive Report: Buffalo Takes Control of the AFC East, and Minnesota Slides in the NFC North
Buffalo's 23-6 win in Minnesota and Green Bay's 45-27 win in New England reshaped two divisions at once. The Bills now win the AFC East in 88% of our simulated seasons, and the Vikings fell from 78% to 58% to make the playoffs. Plus the drive-efficiency movers and the playoff races that changed.
By Advanced Football StatsPublished 7 min read
Ratings entering Week 10 of the 2026 season, built from every drive through the previous week's games, compared with the ratings entering Week 9.
Two games between the AFC East and the NFC North reshaped both divisions. Buffalo won 23-6 in Minnesota and Green Bay won 45-27 in New England, and the Bills now win the AFC East in 88% of our simulated seasons, up from 67%. In the NFC North the same two results dropped Minnesota from 78% to 58% to make the playoffs and lifted Green Bay from 48% to 63%, so at the season's halfway point all four teams in that division are above 55%.
Power rankings: biggest movers
Power rank orders teams by their simulated win rate against the rest of the league.
| Team | Rank | Change | Sim. win rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Green Bay Packers | 10 (was 18) | +8 | 49.9% → 52.8% |
| Riser | Washington Commanders | 22 (was 28) | +6 | 42.4% → 42.8% |
| Riser | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 (was 7) | +4 | 57.5% → 61.4% |
| Faller | New York Jets | 25 (was 21) | −4 | 46.3% → 41.8% |
| Faller | Cleveland Browns | 27 (was 23) | −4 | 43.5% → 41.4% |
| Faller | Los Angeles Chargers | 32 (was 29) | −3 | 41.2% → 37.3% |
Green Bay's jump is one game, and the model did not shrug it off. The Packers scored on 8 of 14 drives in New England, five touchdowns and three field goals, without a giveaway, while the Patriots gave the ball away four times. That moved Green Bay from No. 18 to No. 10 and its simulated win rate from 49.9% to 52.8%. Jacksonville is up to No. 3 after scoring on 7 of 12 drives in Baltimore and holding the Ravens to one touchdown. Washington is the odd one in the table: it lost 20-13 to the Rams and rose six places, because its win rate barely moved (42.4% to 42.8%) while several teams near it fell.
The Jets fell four places after a 35-12 loss in Kansas City: no touchdowns on 11 drives and 16.5 yards a drive, while the Chiefs scored five touchdowns on 12. Cleveland dropped four after a 23-22 loss in New Orleans in which two of its drives ended on downs. The Chargers, at 0-8, are now last in the rankings after Houston scored on 8 of 13 drives against them.
Offense: drive efficiency movers
The offensive rating is the team's effect on how drives end in our drive model. Higher is better.
| Team | Rank | Change | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Tennessee Titans | 21 (was 26) | +5 | −0.121 → −0.119 |
| Riser | Washington Commanders | 26 (was 30) | +4 | −0.193 → −0.153 |
| Riser | Houston Texans | 14 (was 17) | +3 | −0.045 → +0.061 |
| Faller | New York Giants | 28 (was 25) | −3 | −0.114 → −0.171 |
| Faller | Atlanta Falcons | 15 (was 12) | −3 | +0.043 → +0.038 |
| Faller | Miami Dolphins | 24 (was 22) | −2 | −0.098 → −0.141 |
Houston had the biggest real change. The Texans scored five touchdowns and three field goals on 13 drives against the Chargers and averaged 40 yards a drive, which took their rating from below average (−0.045) to above it (+0.061). Washington rose four places with one touchdown on 11 drives, because it came against the Rams, whose defense ranks fourth, and the model adjusts for the opponent. Tennessee rose five places on its bye: its rating did not move, and the teams around it fell.
The Giants won 19-11 in Philadelphia and still fell three places on offense, after one touchdown and four field goals on 12 drives at 19.8 yards a drive. Miami did not score a touchdown on eight drives against Detroit. Atlanta's rating barely changed (+0.043 to +0.038), and it slipped three places because other teams passed it.
Defense: drive efficiency movers
The defensive rating measures how a defense changes opponents' drive outcomes. Higher is better.
| Team | Rank | Change | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 (was 16) | +9 | +0.007 → +0.044 |
| Riser | Jacksonville Jaguars | 16 (was 19) | +3 | −0.028 → +0.017 |
| Riser | Buffalo Bills | 19 (was 22) | +3 | −0.037 → −0.003 |
| Faller | Los Angeles Chargers | 18 (was 7) | −11 | +0.064 → +0.002 |
| Faller | New York Jets | 24 (was 18) | −6 | −0.020 → −0.042 |
| Faller | Atlanta Falcons | 14 (was 10) | −4 | +0.047 → +0.025 |
Buffalo's defense had the week's best day. It held Minnesota without a touchdown on 12 drives, took the ball away three times, stopped two more drives on downs and allowed 15.3 yards a drive, the lowest of the week. Jacksonville allowed Baltimore 17.2 yards a drive and also took the ball away three times. Philadelphia rose nine places in a game it lost: the Eagles held the Giants to one touchdown and 19.8 yards a drive, and defensive ratings sit close enough together that one strong day moves a team a long way.
The fallers all gave up points in bunches. The Chargers fell eleven places, from No. 7 to No. 18, after Houston's 44 points. The Jets allowed five touchdowns on 12 Kansas City drives. Atlanta let Cincinnati score on 6 of 9 drives at 45.2 yards a drive, the best mark of the week.
Playoff chances: biggest swings
Each team's chance to make the playoffs from our full-season simulation, which plays out the rest of the schedule and applies the NFL's tiebreakers.
| Team | Record | Playoff chance | Change (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 65% → 80% | +15 |
| Up | Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 48% → 63% | +15 |
| Up | Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 67% → 79% | +13 |
| Down | Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 78% → 58% | −20 |
| Down | New England Patriots | 5-4 | 84% → 71% | −13 |
| Down | Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 41% → 28% | −13 |
The NFC North is the race that got more interesting. Chicago (7-2) wins the division in 44% of our simulated seasons, with Detroit at 31%, Green Bay at 14% and Minnesota just under 12%. A week ago the Vikings were the second most likely winner at 30%. Then they went without a touchdown at home against Buffalo, and their chance to make the playoffs fell 20 points, the biggest drop of the week. Minnesota is still 6-2, so that fall is the model changing its mind about the team as much as counting one loss. It changed its mind without knowing who played quarterback. Kyler Murray, who had taken every Vikings dropback since Week 3, missed the game with a hamstring strain, and with J.J. McCarthy traded to the Giants in September, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer played in his place. The Vikings have not said when Murray will return. If it is soon, 58% is likely too low. All four teams make the playoffs in more than half our seasons, and on average the division sends 2.9 of them.
The AFC East went the other way. Buffalo (7-1) now wins it in 88% of our seasons and takes the AFC's No. 1 seed in 47%. New England's loss to Green Bay cut the Patriots' chance to win the division from 33% to 12%, though at 5-4 they still make the playoffs in 71%.
In the AFC West, Kansas City and Denver both won and the division stayed close, with the Chiefs at 47% and the Broncos at 44%. Denver's win in Carolina and Las Vegas's loss in San Francisco lifted the Broncos' playoff chance 15 points to 80%. In the AFC North, Cincinnati won 34-17 in Atlanta while Pittsburgh had its bye, and the Bengals now win the division in 62% of our seasons. Cleveland is down to 28% to make the playoffs. Baltimore started Joe Fagnano at quarterback on Thursday, lost 33-10 to Jacksonville and is down to 11.5%. Last week we said the model's 24% for the Ravens was optimistic, because it rates teams on their drives and doesn't know who is at quarterback. This week's number has a second blind spot. With Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both out, the Ravens traded with Arizona for veteran Jacoby Brissett last week, and he could play as soon as this week against the Chargers. The model does not know about the trade, so 11.5% reflects the drives Baltimore has played, not the quarterback it will have.
The NFC South is a different kind of race. All four teams have losing records, and none wins the division in more than a third of our seasons: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay just over 30%, Atlanta 19% and New Orleans 18%. The median projection for each of them is seven wins.
Want to see how this week could change your team's chances? Pick the winners in our playoff scenario planner and watch the odds move.
Top 5 in combined drive efficiency entering Week 10
| Rank | Team | Record | Combined efficiency | Offense rank | Defense rank | Ball security rank | Takeaways rank | Playoff chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | +0.369 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 97% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | +0.292 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 45% |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | +0.239 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 13 | 98% |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 7-2 | +0.224 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 19 | 90% |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | +0.223 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 95% |
How these numbers work
Ratings come from our Bayesian drive-survival model, which estimates how each offense and defense changes the way drives end. Combined efficiency adds the drive-ending and turnover ratings of the offense and the defense (0 = league average); the offense and defense ranks are by each side's combined rating. Ball security and takeaways are the turnover parts on their own: how rarely an offense gives the ball away, and how often a defense takes it. Ranks run from 1 (best) to 32; tied values share a rank. Read the methodology for details.
Full tables: power rankings, combined drive efficiency, offensive drive efficiency and defensive drive efficiency, plus every team's playoff chances.