Week 8 Drive Report: Seattle Takes No. 1, and the AFC North Gets Crowded
Seattle held Kansas City without a touchdown and moved to No. 1 in our power rankings, a hair ahead of San Francisco. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both 5-2 and above 55% to make the playoffs, Tampa Bay's 43-13 rout of Carolina reshaped the NFC South, and how our Week 7 forecasts did.
By Advanced Football StatsPublished
Ratings entering Week 8 of the 2026 season, built from every drive through the previous week's games, compared with the ratings entering Week 7.
Seattle is our new No. 1. The Seahawks held Kansas City to 3 points on Sunday night: eight Chiefs drives, no touchdowns, two missed field goals and 25 yards a drive. Seattle now wins 61.8% of its simulated games against the rest of the league, San Francisco 61.7%, so the top spot is effectively a tie.
Power rankings: biggest movers
Power rank orders teams by their simulated win rate against the rest of the league.
| Team | Rank | Change | Sim. win rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 (was 22) | +6 | 44.4% → 50.2% |
| Riser | Los Angeles Rams | 3 (was 8) | +5 | 56.4% → 60.4% |
| Riser | Seattle Seahawks | 1 (was 5) | +4 | 56.6% → 61.8% |
| Faller | Carolina Panthers | 9 (was 4) | −5 | 58.8% → 53.1% |
| Faller | Arizona Cardinals | 31 (was 26) | −5 | 41.6% → 39.0% |
| Faller | Las Vegas Raiders | 20 (was 16) | −4 | 51.1% → 45.7% |
The biggest movers met each other. Tampa Bay won 43-13 in Carolina: touchdowns on 4 of 10 drives, plus a 32-yard fumble return for another. Carolina's drives went nowhere. Five of its 10 ended in an interception, a fumble or a turnover on downs, and it averaged 25 yards a drive. The Buccaneers jump from No. 22 to No. 16 and the Panthers drop from No. 4 to No. 9. That's one game, and the model weighs it against six others, but it's a big enough game to move both teams. At 2-5, Tampa Bay's playoff chance rose from 7% to 20%.
The Rams climb back to No. 3 after scoring touchdowns on 5 of 11 drives in a 35-21 win in Las Vegas. The Raiders turned the ball over on downs three times, missed a field goal and kicked three more, with touchdowns on only 2 of 11 drives.
Offense: drive efficiency movers
The offensive rating is the team's effect on how drives end in our drive model. Higher is better.
| Team | Rank | Change | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | San Francisco 49ers | 1 (was 6) | +5 | +0.196 → +0.273 |
| Riser | Seattle Seahawks | 13 (was 18) | +5 | +0.015 → +0.033 |
| Riser | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 (was 27) | +4 | −0.181 → −0.120 |
| Faller | Pittsburgh Steelers | 25 (was 21) | −4 | −0.127 → −0.131 |
| Faller | Indianapolis Colts | 18 (was 15) | −3 | +0.026 → −0.027 |
| Faller | Chicago Bears | 5 (was 2) | −3 | +0.270 → +0.232 |
San Francisco's offense is No. 1 after a game it lost. The 49ers averaged 45 yards a drive in Atlanta and scored touchdowns on 3 of 9 drives, which is what this rating measures. They also threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles, and Atlanta won 29-20. Those turnovers count in a separate rating, ball security, where San Francisco fell from No. 2 to No. 15. Seattle's offense rose on 49 yards a drive against Kansas City.
Pittsburgh is the odd faller: the Steelers won in New Orleans, but scored one touchdown on seven drives and settled for three field goals. Indianapolis managed 23 yards a drive and one touchdown in Minnesota. Chicago scored 30 points against New England and still slipped from No. 2 to No. 5, a reminder that ranks near the top move on small differences.
Defense: drive efficiency movers
The defensive rating measures how a defense changes opponents' drive outcomes. Higher is better.
| Team | Rank | Change | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | San Francisco 49ers | 8 (was 13) | +5 | +0.016 → +0.046 |
| Riser | Jacksonville Jaguars | 22 (was 27) | +5 | −0.038 → −0.045 |
| Riser | Cincinnati Bengals | 23 (was 28) | +5 | −0.041 → −0.049 |
| Faller | Tennessee Titans | 27 (was 20) | −7 | −0.013 → −0.064 |
| Faller | Atlanta Falcons | 10 (was 3) | −7 | +0.056 → +0.031 |
| Faller | Las Vegas Raiders | 30 (was 25) | −5 | −0.037 → −0.072 |
San Francisco's defense rose in the same loss. Atlanta scored 29 points but averaged 30 yards a drive, and two of its field goals came on drives that started in San Francisco territory and gained 21 yards between them. The defense gave up points its offense handed over.
Read the other two risers with care. Jacksonville had a bye, and Cincinnati's rating dipped slightly even as it held Baltimore to 13 points. Both moved up because teams around them fell further. Those fallers are Tennessee, Atlanta and Las Vegas, which gave up 44, 45 and 36 yards a drive to Cleveland, San Francisco and the Rams. Defensive ratings sit close together, so a few hundredths of a point can move a team five or more places.
Playoff chances: biggest swings
Each team's chance to make the playoffs from our full-season simulation, which plays out the rest of the schedule and applies the NFL's tiebreakers.
| Team | Record | Playoff chance | Change (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | Cleveland Browns | 5-2 | 37% → 57% | +20 |
| Up | Denver Broncos | 5-2 | 31% → 51% | +19 |
| Up | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-2 | 45% → 61% | +16 |
| Down | Carolina Panthers | 3-3 | 80% → 56% | −24 |
| Down | Green Bay Packers | 4-3 | 51% → 33% | −18 |
| Down | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-4 | 44% → 28% | −16 |
The AFC North is getting crowded. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both 5-2 after road wins, and both are now above 55% to make the playoffs. Cincinnati (4-2) has the best chance in the division at 75%, after scoring touchdowns on 5 of 10 drives in a 35-13 win in Baltimore. The Ravens are 4-3 and down to 42%. The Bengals win the division in 40% of our simulated seasons, the Steelers and Browns in 24% each, and Baltimore in 12%.
In the AFC West, Denver's 30-16 win in Arizona put the 5-2 Broncos at 51%, though Kansas City (82%) still wins the division more often than not. In the NFC North, Green Bay missed two field goals in a 20-17 loss in Detroit, and the Packers' chance fell from 51% to 33%. Last week's four-team race now has a team falling behind.
In the NFC South, Carolina's loss to Tampa Bay cut its chance from 80% to 56%, but the Panthers still win the division in 47% of our seasons, ahead of Atlanta's 32%.
Want to see how this week could change your team's chances? Pick the winners in our playoff scenario planner and watch the odds move.
How our forecasts did
Week 7 was another 7-for-14 week, with a Brier score of 0.276 (lower is better; calling every game 50-50 scores 0.250). The favorites we liked most were the ones that lost: Houston at 67% against the Giants, Carolina at 66% against Tampa Bay and the Jets at 60% against Miami. Most of the games we got right were close calls, like Dallas in Philadelphia and Cincinnati in Baltimore.
Through four weeks we're 33 for 58 (57%), with a Brier score just under 0.250. Every forecast is in our public prediction log before kickoff, so you can check each one.
Top 5 in combined drive efficiency entering Week 8
| Rank | Team | Record | Combined efficiency | Offense rank | Defense rank | Ball security rank | Takeaways rank | Playoff chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | +0.328 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 96% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 3-4 | +0.319 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 44% |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 4-3 | +0.221 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 25 | 79% |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 4-3 | +0.218 | 15 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 62% |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 5-2 | +0.202 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 19 | 74% |
How these numbers work
Ratings come from our Bayesian drive-survival model, which estimates how each offense and defense changes the way drives end. Combined efficiency adds the drive-ending and turnover ratings of the offense and the defense (0 = league average); the offense and defense ranks are by each side's combined rating. Ball security and takeaways are the turnover parts on their own: how rarely an offense gives the ball away, and how often a defense takes it. Ranks run from 1 (best) to 32; tied values share a rank. Read the methodology for details.
Full tables: power rankings, combined drive efficiency, offensive drive efficiency and defensive drive efficiency, plus every team's playoff chances.