Every team ranked by how often it wins 10,000 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 4 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 61.8% |
| 2 (no change since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 61.7% |
| 3 (up 5 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 60.4% |
| 4 (down 3 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 58.4% |
| 5 (down 2 places since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 58.3% |
| 6 (up 3 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 57.3% |
| 7 (down 1 place since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 56.4% |
| 8 (down 1 place since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 55.3% |
| 9 (down 5 places since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 53.1% |
| 10 (up 2 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 53.1% |
| 11 (up 3 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 52.5% |
| 12 (up 3 places since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 52.3% |
| 13 (down 3 places since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 51.2% |
| 14 (down 1 place since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 50.8% |
| 15 (down 4 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 50.6% |
| 16 (up 6 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 50.2% |
| 17 (up 1 place since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 47.0% |
| 18 (up 3 places since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 47.0% |
| 19 (up 1 place since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 46.3% |
| 20 (down 4 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 45.7% |
| 21 (down 4 places since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 45.1% |
| 22 (up 1 place since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 44.9% |
| 23 (down 4 places since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 44.3% |
| 24 (no change since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 42.8% |
| 25 (no change since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 41.9% |
| 26 (up 1 place since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 41.0% |
| 27 (up 3 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 40.8% |
| 28 (up 1 place since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 40.4% |
| 29 (up 2 places since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 39.2% |
| 30 (down 2 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 39.2% |
| 31 (down 5 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 39.0% |
| 32 (no change since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 36.4% |