Week 9 Drive Report: Denver Makes the AFC West a Race, and the AFC North Thins Out
Denver beat Kansas City and cut the Chiefs' chance to win the AFC West from 64% to 44%. Pittsburgh's 27-6 win over Cleveland and Baltimore's 36-10 loss in Buffalo thinned the AFC North to two contenders. Plus the drive-efficiency movers and our best forecasting week so far.
By Advanced Football StatsPublished 7 min read
Ratings entering Week 9 of the 2026 season, built from every drive through the previous week's games, compared with the ratings entering Week 8.
Denver's 28-24 win over Kansas City did more than move the Broncos six places in our power rankings. Kansas City's chance to win the AFC West fell from 64% to 44%, and Denver's rose from 25% to 39%, so the division is close to a toss-up with nine weeks left. One Sunday also sorted the AFC North: Pittsburgh is up to 78% to make the playoffs, Cleveland is down to 41%, and Baltimore to 24%.
Power rankings: biggest movers
Power rank orders teams by their simulated win rate against the rest of the league.
| Team | Rank | Change | Sim. win rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Denver Broncos | 22 (was 28) | +6 | 40.4% → 44.6% |
| Riser | Houston Texans | 9 (was 15) | +6 | 50.6% → 52.6% |
| Riser | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11 (was 16) | +5 | 50.2% → 51.7% |
| Faller | Baltimore Ravens | 20 (was 14) | −6 | 50.8% → 47.1% |
| Faller | Philadelphia Eagles | 31 (was 25) | −6 | 41.9% → 38.9% |
| Faller | Carolina Panthers | 15 (was 9) | −6 | 53.1% → 50.5% |
Denver's jump is one game, but a clean one against the team it is chasing. The Broncos scored on 5 of 11 drives, three touchdowns and two field goals, and never turned the ball over. Kansas City actually gained more per drive, 37 yards to Denver's 31, but a missed field goal and a turnover on downs wasted two of them. The model weighs this against Denver's seven other games, and it still moved the Broncos from No. 28 to No. 22. Houston rose six places without playing: retraining on the week's games moved its simulated win rate from 50.6% to 52.6%, past several teams that lost.
Baltimore's drop is the game you would expect from a 36-10 score, and the box score undersells how it went. Lamar Jackson, back from an ankle injury, threw one pass, an incompletion five minutes into the game, and hurt his throwing thumb on the play. Tyler Huntley threw five more before a sack and fumble early in the second quarter handed Buffalo the ball at the Baltimore 20 and left him with turf toe, and Joe Fagnano, the third quarterback, threw the other 26. The Ravens averaged 12.5 yards on 13 drives, the worst mark of the week, with one touchdown, three turnovers and a missed field goal. Philadelphia fell to No. 31 after one touchdown on 12 drives in Washington, and Carolina slipped from No. 9 to No. 15 after 19 yards a drive in Green Bay.
Offense: drive efficiency movers
The offensive rating is the team's effect on how drives end in our drive model. Higher is better.
| Team | Rank | Change | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Arizona Cardinals | 20 (was 26) | +6 | −0.144 → −0.093 |
| Riser | Las Vegas Raiders | 13 (was 17) | +4 | −0.016 → +0.038 |
| Riser | Pittsburgh Steelers | 21 (was 25) | +4 | −0.131 → −0.094 |
| Faller | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 (was 23) | −4 | −0.120 → −0.145 |
| Faller | Baltimore Ravens | 18 (was 15) | −3 | +0.015 → −0.055 |
| Faller | Carolina Panthers | 14 (was 11) | −3 | +0.089 → +0.037 |
Arizona scored touchdowns on 4 of 13 drives in Dallas and averaged 37 yards a drive in a 33-30 win. Las Vegas scored touchdowns on 5 of 11 drives against the Jets, kicked a field goal on another and did not turn the ball over. Pittsburgh scored on 5 of 11 drives and averaged 35 yards against Cleveland.
Tampa Bay is the faller worth a second look. The Buccaneers won 16-0 and still fell four places on offense, because that side had a poor day: one touchdown on 12 drives, six punts and 26 yards a drive. The shutout belongs to the defense, which is why the Buccaneers rose five places in the power rankings anyway. Baltimore's 12.5 yards a drive speaks for itself, and Carolina's offense managed two touchdowns on 13 drives in Green Bay.
Defense: drive efficiency movers
The defensive rating measures how a defense changes opponents' drive outcomes. Higher is better.
| Team | Rank | Change | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riser | Buffalo Bills | 22 (was 28) | +6 | −0.066 → −0.037 |
| Riser | Green Bay Packers | 24 (was 29) | +5 | −0.071 → −0.051 |
| Riser | Los Angeles Chargers | 7 (was 11) | +4 | +0.031 → +0.064 |
| Faller | Cincinnati Bengals | 28 (was 23) | −5 | −0.049 → −0.096 |
| Faller | Carolina Panthers | 26 (was 21) | −5 | −0.044 → −0.075 |
| Faller | Tennessee Titans | 30 (was 27) | −3 | −0.064 → −0.115 |
Buffalo's defense had the week's best day. It held Baltimore to one touchdown on 13 drives, took the ball away three times and allowed 12.5 yards a drive. Green Bay held Carolina to 19 yards a drive and two touchdowns on 13 drives. Los Angeles rose to No. 7 in a game it lost 24-9: the Rams scored three touchdowns on 11 drives but averaged only 24 yards, and defensive ratings sit close enough together that a day like that still moves a team up.
The fallers all gave up long drives. Tennessee scored touchdowns on 4 of 14 drives against Cincinnati and averaged 31 yards, and the Bengals won 43-36 only because their own offense scored six touchdowns. That is also why Tennessee's defense fell: it allowed 36 yards a drive. Carolina's defense gave up four touchdowns on 12 Green Bay drives.
Playoff chances: biggest swings
Each team's chance to make the playoffs from our full-season simulation, which plays out the rest of the schedule and applies the NFL's tiebreakers.
| Team | Record | Playoff chance | Change (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 61% → 78% | +17 |
| Up | Green Bay Packers | 5-3 | 33% → 48% | +15 |
| Up | Chicago Bears | 6-2 | 74% → 88% | +14 |
| Down | Baltimore Ravens | 4-4 | 42% → 24% | −19 |
| Down | Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | 44% → 27% | −17 |
| Down | Cleveland Browns | 5-3 | 57% → 41% | −16 |
The AFC North thinned out in one afternoon. Last week all four teams were in the race. Now Cincinnati (81%) and Pittsburgh (78%) are the clear leaders, with the Bengals winning the division in 46% of our simulated seasons and the Steelers in 39%. Cleveland's 27-6 loss in Pittsburgh cut the Browns to 41% to make the playoffs and 11% to win the division. Baltimore, at 4-4, wins the North in 5% of our seasons, and its median projection is now 8 wins. The outlook is bleaker than that number. After the game the Ravens said Jackson needs thumb surgery and will go on injured reserve, which means at least four more games, and Huntley's turf toe is expected to keep him out for an extended time, so Fagnano is in line to start Thursday against Jacksonville. The model rates teams on their drives and doesn't know who is at quarterback, so the Ravens' 24% is optimistic, and so is the 40% chance it gives them on Thursday.
The AFC West is the race that opened up. Kansas City still leads it at 44%, down from 64%, with Denver at 39% and Las Vegas, after a 38-33 win in New York, at 17%. In the NFC North, Chicago's 34-17 win in Seattle took the Bears to 88% to make the playoffs, and Green Bay's win over Carolina lifted the Packers from 33% to 48%. The Bears, Vikings and Lions are all above 65%, so the division could send three teams.
In the NFC East, Dallas lost at home to Arizona and fell from 44% to 27%. The Giants now win the division in 60% of our seasons with a median of 8 wins, the lowest projection of any division leader, level with Carolina in the South.
Want to see how this week could change your team's chances? Pick the winners in our playoff scenario planner and watch the odds move.
How our forecasts did
Week 8 was our best week since the public log began in Week 6: 8 of 14 games right, with a Brier score of 0.231 (lower is better; calling every game 50-50 scores 0.250). The misses were mostly close calls. We had Kansas City at 58.5% in Denver and Carolina at 58.5% in Green Bay, and both lost. The one that stings is Dallas at 62% against Arizona. The teams we rated most strongly all came through: Cincinnati, New England and the Rams, each near 66-69%.
Since the log began we are 22 for 42 (52%) with a Brier score of 0.255, so three weeks in we are about even with a coin flip. Every forecast is in our public prediction log before kickoff, so you can check each one.
Top 5 in combined drive efficiency entering Week 9
| Rank | Team | Record | Combined efficiency | Offense rank | Defense rank | Ball security rank | Takeaways rank | Playoff chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | +0.333 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 95% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | +0.318 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 48% |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 6-2 | +0.227 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 21 | 88% |
| 4 | New England Patriots | 5-3 | +0.218 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 84% |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | +0.213 | 2 | 24 | 15 | 26 | 95% |
How these numbers work
Ratings come from our Bayesian drive-survival model, which estimates how each offense and defense changes the way drives end. Combined efficiency adds the drive-ending and turnover ratings of the offense and the defense (0 = league average); the offense and defense ranks are by each side's combined rating. Ball security and takeaways are the turnover parts on their own: how rarely an offense gives the ball away, and how often a defense takes it. Ranks run from 1 (best) to 32; tied values share a rank. Read the methodology for details.
Full tables: power rankings, combined drive efficiency, offensive drive efficiency and defensive drive efficiency, plus every team's playoff chances.