NFL Standings and Projected Wins: Week 4, 2026

Current records plus each team's projected final wins, the average over 2,000 simulations of the rest of the season with our drive-by-drive game model. Projections account for remaining schedule and team strength. How the model works.

Updated Thu, Oct 1, 2026 · Data: nflverse (CC BY 4.0)

NFL standings, Week 4, 2026: record (W-L, plus ties if any) and projected final wins (mean of 2,000 season simulations), sorted by projected wins.
Rank	Team	Record	Proj. winsProjected wins
1	San Francisco 49ersSFO	3-0	12.1
2	Buffalo BillsBUF	3-0	11.4
3	Kansas City ChiefsKAN	3-0	10.4
4	Baltimore RavensBAL	2-1	10.4
5	Las Vegas RaidersLVR	3-0	10.3
6	Chicago BearsCHI	2-1	10.3
7	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	2-1	10.1
8	Seattle SeahawksSEA	2-1	9.7
9	Detroit LionsDET	2-1	9.6
10	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	2-1	9.3
11	Minnesota VikingsMIN	3-0	9.1
12	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	2-1	9.0
13	New Orleans SaintsNOR	1-2	8.8
14	Los Angeles RamsLAR	1-2	8.7
15	Dallas CowboysDAL	1-2	8.6
16	Carolina PanthersCAR	1-2	8.5
17	Cleveland BrownsCLE	2-1	8.5
18	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1-2	8.5
19	New York JetsNYJ	1-2	8.3
20	Denver BroncosDEN	2-1	8.0
21	New York GiantsNYG	2-1	8.0
22	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	2-1	8.0
23	New England PatriotsNWE	1-2	7.9
24	Arizona CardinalsARI	1-2	7.3
25	Houston TexansHOU	0-3	7.0
26	Atlanta FalconsATL	1-2	7.0
27	Washington CommandersWAS	1-2	6.8
28	Green Bay PackersGNB	1-2	6.6
29	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM	0-3	6.0
30	Tennessee TitansTEN	0-3	5.8
31	Miami DolphinsMIA	0-3	5.6
32	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	0-3	5.6