Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 84.0% |
| 2 | Buffalo BillsBUF | 83.0% |
| 3 | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 63.0% |
| 4 | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 61.0% |
| 5 | Atlanta FalconsATL | 59.0% |
| 6 | Denver BroncosDEN | 58.0% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 56.0% |
| 8 | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 55.0% |
| 9 | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 53.0% |
| 10 | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 53.0% |
| 11 | Miami DolphinsMIA | 52.0% |
| 12 | Washington CommandersWAS | 51.0% |
| 13 | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 51.0% |
| 14 | Detroit LionsDET | 51.0% |
| 15 | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 50.0% |
| 16 | Green Bay PackersGNB | 48.0% |
| 17 | New England PatriotsNWE | 48.0% |
| 18 | Chicago BearsCHI | 48.0% |
| 19 | Carolina PanthersCAR | 46.0% |
| 20 | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 46.0% |
| 21 | New York GiantsNYG | 45.0% |
| 22 | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 44.0% |
| 23 | Baltimore RavensBAL | 44.0% |
| 24 | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 43.0% |
| 25 | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 43.0% |
| 26 | Tennessee TitansTEN | 42.0% |
| 27 | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 41.0% |
| 28 | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 40.0% |
| 29 | Houston TexansHOU | 38.0% |
| 30 | New York JetsNYJ | 37.0% |
| 31 | Dallas CowboysDAL | 33.0% |
| 32 | Arizona CardinalsARI | 31.0% |