Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 1 place since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 61.4% |
| 2 (up 7 places since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 59.5% |
| 3 (up 2 places since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 59.3% |
| 4 (down 1 place since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 58.8% |
| 5 (down 1 place since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 56.6% |
| 6 (up 5 places since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 56.6% |
| 7 (no change since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 56.4% |
| 8 (down 7 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 56.4% |
| 9 (down 3 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 55.6% |
| 10 (down 2 places since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 55.3% |
| 11 (up 7 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 54.7% |
| 12 (down 2 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 53.9% |
| 13 (down 1 place since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 53.7% |
| 14 (up 3 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 53.6% |
| 15 (down 2 places since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 52.3% |
| 16 (down 1 place since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 51.1% |
| 17 (up 2 places since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 48.6% |
| 18 (down 4 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 48.2% |
| 19 (up 7 places since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 46.7% |
| 20 (up 2 places since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 45.2% |
| 21 (down 1 place since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 44.8% |
| 22 (down 6 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 44.4% |
| 23 (up 1 place since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 42.5% |
| 24 (up 3 places since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 42.3% |
| 25 (down 2 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 41.7% |
| 26 (up 5 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 41.6% |
| 27 (up 2 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 41.5% |
| 28 (up 4 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 40.1% |
| 29 (up 1 place since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 38.5% |
| 30 (down 9 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 37.8% |
| 31 (down 3 places since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 37.6% |
| 32 (down 7 places since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 36.8% |