Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (no change since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 79.0% |
| 2 (up 2 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 76.6% |
| 3 (down 1 place since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 71.0% |
| 4 (up 5 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 70.8% |
| 5 (down 2 places since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 68.8% |
| 6 (no change since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 68.4% |
| 7 (down 2 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 67.0% |
| 8 (up 4 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 66.4% |
| 9 (down 2 places since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 65.8% |
| 10 (no change since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 60.0% |
| 11 (no change since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 59.2% |
| 12 (down 4 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 57.8% |
| 13 (up 2 places since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 56.8% |
| 14 (down 1 place since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 55.4% |
| 15 (down 1 place since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 53.8% |
| 16 (up 2 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 53.6% |
| 17 (down 1 place since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 53.6% |
| 18 (down 1 place since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 52.8% |
| 19 (up 1 place since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 52.8% |
| 20 (up 2 places since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 50.0% |
| 21 (down 2 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 48.6% |
| 22 (down 1 place since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 48.0% |
| 23 (up 1 place since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 43.8% |
| 24 (up 3 places since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 40.6% |
| 25 (down 2 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 38.6% |
| 26 (down 1 place since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 38.0% |
| 27 (down 1 place since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 37.4% |
| 28 (no change since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 33.8% |
| 29 (up 1 place since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 32.8% |
| 30 (down 1 place since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 30.8% |
| 31 (no change since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 25.0% |
| 32 (no change since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 21.8% |