Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (no change since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 82.4% |
| 2 (up 9 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 78.0% |
| 3 (up 1 place since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 73.8% |
| 4 (up 1 place since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 70.2% |
| 5 (up 7 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 68.2% |
| 6 (up 4 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 67.6% |
| 7 (down 5 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 67.0% |
| 8 (down 2 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 65.2% |
| 9 (down 1 place since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 65.0% |
| 10 (up 4 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 61.6% |
| 11 (down 8 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 61.0% |
| 12 (down 5 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 60.0% |
| 13 (up 2 places since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 58.0% |
| 14 (up 5 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 57.0% |
| 15 (up 1 place since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 55.4% |
| 16 (down 7 places since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 50.8% |
| 17 (up 7 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 50.2% |
| 18 (up 8 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 49.4% |
| 19 (up 6 places since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 49.4% |
| 20 (down 7 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 48.6% |
| 21 (down 1 place since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 48.0% |
| 22 (up 1 place since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 46.2% |
| 23 (down 5 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 44.6% |
| 24 (down 7 places since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 42.4% |
| 25 (down 3 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 42.0% |
| 26 (down 5 places since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 38.0% |
| 27 (no change since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 30.2% |
| 28 (up 2 places since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 28.8% |
| 29 (no change since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 28.8% |
| 30 (down 2 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 28.8% |
| 31 (no change since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 18.6% |
| 32 (no change since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 15.0% |