Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 3 places since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 69.0% |
| 2 (down 1 place since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 68.0% |
| 3 (no change since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 64.0% |
| 4 (up 18 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 62.0% |
| 5 (up 2 places since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 61.0% |
| 6 (up 18 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 61.0% |
| 7 (up 2 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 58.0% |
| 8 (down 3 places since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 57.0% |
| 9 (up 1 place since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 57.0% |
| 10 (down 2 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 56.0% |
| 11 (no change since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 54.0% |
| 12 (up 8 places since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 53.0% |
| 13 (up 17 places since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 53.0% |
| 14 (up 4 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 51.0% |
| 15 (up 4 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 51.0% |
| 16 (down 14 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 51.0% |
| 17 (down 11 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 50.0% |
| 18 (up 3 places since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 50.0% |
| 19 (down 6 places since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 49.0% |
| 20 (up 3 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 49.0% |
| 21 (down 7 places since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 48.0% |
| 22 (down 7 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 47.0% |
| 23 (down 6 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 47.0% |
| 24 (down 12 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 46.0% |
| 25 (down 9 places since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 45.0% |
| 26 (down 1 place since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 43.0% |
| 27 (up 2 places since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 42.0% |
| 28 (no change since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 38.0% |
| 29 (up 2 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 36.0% |
| 30 (down 3 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 35.0% |
| 31 (down 5 places since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 34.0% |
| 32 (no change since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 31.0% |