Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 1 place since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 70.7% |
| 2 (up 20 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 65.3% |
| 3 (down 2 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 64.7% |
| 4 (up 1 place since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 64.0% |
| 5 (up 7 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 62.0% |
| 6 (up 18 places since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 62.0% |
| 7 (up 3 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 58.7% |
| 8 (down 2 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 56.7% |
| 9 (down 5 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 56.7% |
| 10 (up 20 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 56.0% |
| 11 (down 4 places since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 55.3% |
| 12 (up 4 places since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 54.7% |
| 13 (down 10 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 52.7% |
| 14 (up 9 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 52.7% |
| 15 (down 7 places since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 52.7% |
| 16 (down 3 places since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 52.0% |
| 17 (down 2 places since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 51.3% |
| 18 (down 4 places since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 50.0% |
| 19 (up 2 places since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 49.3% |
| 20 (no change since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 49.3% |
| 21 (down 2 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 48.7% |
| 22 (up 3 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 48.7% |
| 23 (down 6 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 45.3% |
| 24 (up 2 places since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 44.0% |
| 25 (down 16 places since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 44.0% |
| 26 (up 2 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 42.7% |
| 27 (up 2 places since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 41.3% |
| 28 (down 10 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 41.3% |
| 29 (down 18 places since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 39.3% |
| 30 (down 3 places since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 38.7% |
| 31 (up 1 place since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 33.3% |
| 32 (down 1 place since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 29.3% |