Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 1 place since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 70.0% |
| 2 (down 1 place since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 69.0% |
| 3 (up 7 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 67.0% |
| 4 (no change since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 66.0% |
| 5 (down 2 places since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 65.0% |
| 6 (up 6 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 65.0% |
| 7 (down 2 places since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 63.0% |
| 8 (up 8 places since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 61.0% |
| 9 (up 6 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 59.0% |
| 10 (up 7 places since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 59.0% |
| 11 (up 14 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 56.0% |
| 12 (down 3 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 56.0% |
| 13 (up 10 places since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 55.0% |
| 14 (down 3 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 53.0% |
| 15 (up 6 places since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 52.0% |
| 16 (up 8 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 52.0% |
| 17 (down 9 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 48.0% |
| 18 (down 12 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 48.0% |
| 19 (down 5 places since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 47.0% |
| 20 (up 7 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 46.0% |
| 21 (up 7 places since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 46.0% |
| 22 (down 15 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 46.0% |
| 23 (up 3 places since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 43.0% |
| 24 (down 6 places since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 42.0% |
| 25 (down 5 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 41.0% |
| 26 (down 4 places since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 41.0% |
| 27 (down 14 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 40.0% |
| 28 (up 2 places since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 38.0% |
| 29 (no change since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 38.0% |
| 30 (up 1 place since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 36.0% |
| 31 (down 12 places since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 32.0% |
| 32 (no change since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 20.0% |