Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas CowboysDAL | 77.0% |
| 2 | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 74.0% |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 70.0% |
| 4 | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 67.0% |
| 5 | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 66.0% |
| 6 | Baltimore RavensBAL | 63.0% |
| 7 | Carolina PanthersCAR | 63.0% |
| 8 | Buffalo BillsBUF | 62.0% |
| 9 | Atlanta FalconsATL | 60.0% |
| 10 | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 60.0% |
| 11 | Tennessee TitansTEN | 58.0% |
| 12 | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 57.0% |
| 13 | Washington CommandersWAS | 56.0% |
| 14 | New York JetsNYJ | 55.0% |
| 15 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 54.0% |
| 16 | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 54.0% |
| 17 | Arizona CardinalsARI | 52.0% |
| 18 | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 51.0% |
| 19 | Green Bay PackersGNB | 51.0% |
| 20 | Houston TexansHOU | 49.0% |
| 21 | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 49.0% |
| 22 | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 47.0% |
| 23 | Miami DolphinsMIA | 46.0% |
| 24 | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 45.0% |
| 25 | Denver BroncosDEN | 45.0% |
| 26 | New England PatriotsNWE | 44.0% |
| 27 | Detroit LionsDET | 43.0% |
| 28 | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 41.0% |
| 29 | Chicago BearsCHI | 40.0% |
| 30 | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 37.0% |
| 31 | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 32.0% |
| 32 | New York GiantsNYG | 27.0% |