Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 3 places since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 68.7% |
| 2 (up 7 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 67.3% |
| 3 (up 4 places since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 66.7% |
| 4 (down 2 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 66.7% |
| 5 (up 3 places since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 65.3% |
| 6 (up 9 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 59.3% |
| 7 (up 4 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 58.0% |
| 8 (up 9 places since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 58.0% |
| 9 (up 4 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 56.0% |
| 10 (down 9 places since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 56.0% |
| 11 (down 5 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 56.0% |
| 12 (down 2 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 56.0% |
| 13 (up 3 places since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 55.3% |
| 14 (no change since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 55.3% |
| 15 (down 12 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 54.7% |
| 16 (up 3 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 54.7% |
| 17 (up 1 place since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 54.7% |
| 18 (up 4 places since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 53.3% |
| 19 (down 7 places since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 51.3% |
| 20 (up 3 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 51.3% |
| 21 (up 5 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 50.7% |
| 22 (down 17 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 50.7% |
| 23 (down 2 places since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 44.7% |
| 24 (up 1 place since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 44.0% |
| 25 (up 4 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 43.3% |
| 26 (up 5 places since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 43.3% |
| 27 (down 7 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 40.7% |
| 28 (down 1 place since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 40.0% |
| 29 (down 1 place since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 38.0% |
| 30 (down 6 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 37.3% |
| 31 (up 1 place since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 31.3% |
| 32 (down 2 places since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 28.0% |