Every team ranked by how often it wins 150 simulated games against a league-median opponent, using our drive-by-drive game simulation. Win rate measures team strength independent of schedule. How the model works.
| Rank | Team | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (up 11 places since last week) | Los Angeles ChargersLAC | 62.7% |
| 2 (down 1 place since last week) | Indianapolis ColtsIND | 62.0% |
| 3 (up 4 places since last week) | Detroit LionsDET | 60.7% |
| 4 (up 17 places since last week) | Atlanta FalconsATL | 60.7% |
| 5 (up 14 places since last week) | Los Angeles RamsLAR | 59.3% |
| 6 (up 10 places since last week) | Seattle SeahawksSEA | 58.0% |
| 7 (down 5 places since last week) | Kansas City ChiefsKAN | 58.0% |
| 8 (down 2 places since last week) | San Francisco 49ersSFO | 58.0% |
| 9 (up 1 place since last week) | Pittsburgh SteelersPIT | 58.0% |
| 10 (down 7 places since last week) | Buffalo BillsBUF | 55.3% |
| 11 (up 3 places since last week) | Baltimore RavensBAL | 55.3% |
| 12 (down 8 places since last week) | Green Bay PackersGNB | 54.7% |
| 13 (up 5 places since last week) | Minnesota VikingsMIN | 54.7% |
| 14 (down 5 places since last week) | Jacksonville JaguarsJAX | 54.0% |
| 15 (down 4 places since last week) | Carolina PanthersCAR | 53.3% |
| 16 (up 10 places since last week) | Dallas CowboysDAL | 52.7% |
| 17 (down 9 places since last week) | Las Vegas RaidersLVR | 52.7% |
| 18 (down 5 places since last week) | Chicago BearsCHI | 52.0% |
| 19 (up 8 places since last week) | Tampa Bay BuccaneersTAM | 52.0% |
| 20 (up 10 places since last week) | New York JetsNYJ | 50.0% |
| 21 (down 4 places since last week) | New England PatriotsNWE | 49.3% |
| 22 (up 7 places since last week) | Houston TexansHOU | 47.3% |
| 23 (down 18 places since last week) | Philadelphia EaglesPHI | 46.7% |
| 24 (up 1 place since last week) | Denver BroncosDEN | 46.0% |
| 25 (up 3 places since last week) | New York GiantsNYG | 45.3% |
| 26 (down 11 places since last week) | Miami DolphinsMIA | 44.7% |
| 27 (down 5 places since last week) | Cleveland BrownsCLE | 44.0% |
| 28 (down 4 places since last week) | Arizona CardinalsARI | 43.3% |
| 29 (up 2 places since last week) | New Orleans SaintsNOR | 42.0% |
| 30 (down 10 places since last week) | Washington CommandersWAS | 40.0% |
| 31 (down 8 places since last week) | Cincinnati BengalsCIN | 34.7% |
| 32 (no change since last week) | Tennessee TitansTEN | 23.3% |